An independent mortality survey estimates 84,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 2023, most of them women, children, and the elderly.
An independent mortality survey has estimated that approximately 84,000 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip between October 2023 and early January 2025 as a result of Israel’s ongoing genocide.
Published last week on the preprint server medRxiv, the study found that over half of those killed were women aged 18 to 64, children, or elderly individuals over 65.
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Since the war began, the primary source for casualty figures has been the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza, which has regularly published detailed lists of the dead. As of June 25, the ministry reported 56,200 fatalities. However, the reliability of these figures has been challenged, particularly as Israeli attacks have damaged the medical infrastructure relied upon for tracking deaths.
The new figures are derived from an independent household survey and not from the Health Ministry.
While exact counts remain difficult in a conflict zone, the numbers are consistent with those reported by another research group earlier this year using a different methodology, according to Patrick Ball, statistician and research director at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group in San Francisco.
Survey Methodology
To conduct the survey, researchers collaborated with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. They randomly selected households across the Gaza Strip, including displaced individuals living in tents and temporary shelters.
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Due to the intensity of Israeli attacks and evacuation orders, the survey team could not access northern Gaza, Gaza City, or Rafah. However, many residents from those areas had already fled to regions where the survey was conducted.
Between December 30, 2024, and early January 2025, the team interviewed adults from 2,000 households. Participants, who remained anonymous, were asked how many people lived in their household as of October 6, 2023, and how many children were born since. They then reported on the current status of each household member — whether alive, deceased, or missing. Respondents also distinguished between violent and non-violent deaths.
“The power of this work comes from the fieldwork,” said Ball, describing the ability to conduct such a survey during an ongoing war as remarkable.
Violent and Non-Violent Deaths
The researchers estimated that around 75,200 people were killed by violent means, with an additional 8,540 dying due to non-violent causes such as starvation, lack of medical care, and poor living conditions, all exacerbated by the war.
Study co-author Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, University of London, cautioned that non-violent deaths may have increased further since the survey was conducted.
Before the war, Palestinians in Gaza had relatively good access to healthcare, but that has deteriorated rapidly, noted co-author Debarati Guha-Sapir, an epidemiologist at the University of Leuven in Belgium.
“In spite of being conducted six months ago, this survey remains highly relevant,” said Laith Jamal Aburashad, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar. “The crisis has only worsened since then.”
Since October 7, 2023, Israel — with full backing from the United States — has carried out a devastating military campaign against Gaza, resulting in more than 186,000 people killed or wounded, the majority of them women and children. Over 14,000 remain missing under the rubble.
The findings of this new survey align with earlier estimates released by another research team, which reported 64,260 violent deaths by the end of June 2024.
(PC, AJA)
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