A new Israeli poll shows the opposition winning a Knesset majority, while Netanyahu’s coalition collapses and Arab parties move toward a unified electoral list.
A new Israeli opinion poll indicates a major shift in the country’s political landscape, granting the opposition a parliamentary majority and placing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on course for a significant electoral defeat.
According to a poll conducted by the Israeli daily Maariv, opposition parties would secure 61 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today—enough to form a government—while Netanyahu’s ruling coalition would fall to just 49 seats. Under a scenario in which Arab parties run separately, they would collectively win 10 seats.
The poll also points to dramatic losses for several prominent parties. The far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would fail to cross the electoral threshold, while Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party would also be excluded from the Knesset.
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These results come despite Smotrich’s intensified efforts to mobilize the right-wing base, particularly Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank, by advancing what have been described as unprecedented settlement expansion plans over the past three years.
In parallel, the four main Palestinian-led parties inside Israel signed a written pledge to contest the next elections on a unified Arab list, a move widely seen as a response to sustained public pressure.
Al Jazeera correspondent Mohammad Khairy reported that the Maariv poll assumed the Arab parties would run separately. Previous polls, including one by Israel’s Channel 12, suggest that a unified list could increase Arab representation to more than 16 seats.
Such a bloc, Khairy noted, would constitute a significant parliamentary force, capable of influencing government formation and shaping the policies of any future Israeli coalition.
The signing of the pledge, titled “Joint List Now,” followed large-scale protests in the city of Sakhnin, where thousands of Palestinians from the Galilee, the Triangle, and the Naqab demonstrated against rising crime and violence in Arab communities, holding the Israeli government responsible.
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The document was signed by MK Ahmad Tibi of the Arab Movement for Change, Ayman Odeh of the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, Sami Abu Shehadeh of the National Democratic Assembly, and Mansour Abbas of the United Arab List.
The poll also reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the Israeli government’s performance, with 41 percent of respondents describing its handling of the war in Gaza as a failure. The findings coincide with US pressure to transition toward a political phase following the military campaign.
In October, Israel’s public broadcaster reported that Netanyahu is considering advancing general elections to June 2026, instead of the scheduled date of November 3. Under Israeli law, early elections require a government decision to dissolve the Knesset, followed by approval from the Israeli president.
(AJA, PC, Israeli Media)
