"There is a 50/50 chance the United States will attack Iran, and any such strike would risk spreading sectarian violence throughout the Middle East," Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa has said. Having heard this, I’m having a feverish brain-storm this afternoon. There are several scenarios playing out right now. And some of the scenarios are waiting for a cusp (A decision, forced or made.)
One of the scenarios is based on Israelis going it their way. In bombing Iran’s nuclear plants, I mean.
The cusp for the US has already been made as claimed by George Bush, that they will defend Israel against any retaliation by Iran. (My big brother will help me beat you up, as little children do on the schoolyard to get it their way.) This could be a free decision, because Israel is claimed to be the only democracy and "friend" in the Middle East. (Well, with friends as these, one doesn’t really need enemies.)
The US could attack Iran, heavily influenced by AIPAC, Jinsa, Neo-Cons and other automatic Israelis that will lead America by the nose to get Israel where and what it wants.
In another interesting conjecture; it would surprise me not a bit, to hear that there’s a deliberate plan on the part of the Democrats to stall the issue until Bush does attack Iran, which would play right into the Democrats’ hands and sink the Republican ship for a long, long time; something they might consider the sacrifice of a few hundred thousand Iranians a small price to pay for their "victory." A scenario, (which has pretty much unfolded itself as I write it here) that the DNC, the Clintons, and Pelosi are giving GWB rope enough, and setting up a trap, much like the father and Reagan did to Carter during the Iranian hostage crisis, to take him down.
It does answer a lot of unanswered questions as to why Pelosi etc, have not made the obviously politically advantageous moves like impeachment and funds cut-off. Why? Unless they have something bigger and better in mind, with even more everlasting effects?
Oh, and now, this ain’t new for anyone with brain. The Iranians are far from stupid, they have outsmarted the Americans before. In spite of international (Western) claims of being backward or, God forbid, in their survival struggle for their own identity, evil. At this moment, North Korea wants a bigger role on the world stage, and thus they have offered to "help" the Iranians with the development of their nuclear weapons. North Korea is considered by me as China’s lapdog. In spite of all rhetoric to the contrary.
On the other hand, does Iran really need this "help", since it already has the capability to make a big load of dirty bombs that will render big pieces of Israel’s seized land worthless for times to come.
It ain’t completely clear to me as to what the Muslim Pakistani population is going to do if Iran is attacked the nuclear way by either Israel or the US. Would they do anything to help their Muslim brothers? And Pakistan is a nuclear nation.
Europe? They’ll sit it out!
I once wrote here about the Eastern military philosophy of the futility of driving an "enemy" into a corner, or an absolute state of desperation, without the chance of an escape. I think they are approaching this point in the Middle-East.
As for the insanity of the entire program of attacking Iran, I cannot explain it except as group insanity! Which, in itself, is inconceivable, inexplicable and intolerable!
Debbie Menon, Dubai