By Khader Saba Abu Abbara

The break out of violence and the disastrous situation currently prevailed in West Bank and Gaza became a grieving and intimidating issue for most of the Palestinians who rejected and condemned such armed confrontations between the brothers and\or comrades. Both Hamas and Fatah brigades were exposed to extreme criticism by the Palestinian population who pleaded the two parties to stop fighting and return to negotiation as the sole avenue to keep internal and national harmony and unity.

The installation of Hamas-led government resulted of the Palestinian legislative election which took place in January 2006, represents a turning point in the Palestinian-Palestinian relationship. Since then, the Palestinian political scene witnessed new era full of discrepancy, instability and violence. Obviously, the internal fight which victimized more than 50 Palestinians up till now, is the most disturbing and affecting factor that undermines and endangers the social, political and economical harmony and stability, yet one needs to exert no hard efforts to find out its main and real causes.
 
The main and crucial question is: What is next? When this drama will be finished? Who will finish it and how?

These questions and others reflect the ambiguous environment overwhelming large part of the Palestinian Population. This article seeks to find out the different possibilities and scenarios that might take place on political level:

First: Forming the National Unity Government (NUG): this the first and the strongest anticipated and available scenario within the existing balances of power. Neither of the rival parties can form solely one-sided government, Hamas needs Fatah to provide the needed external window to acquire international recognition and dismantle the  choking siege imposed over  Palestinian People. While Fatah needs Hamas to provide the judicial and legal coverage for any step taken on political level since Hamas constitutes the majority in the Legislative council.

Second: Early-elections: The second and practical scenario is the early elections which will be the solution of the political impasse and the complicated situation prevailed since 12 months. The previous elections have produced a two-headed and contradicted leading body, in which Hamas possessed the legislative authority while Fatah possessed the  executive authority. The situation which ultimately led to entire paralysis and affected all   aspects of Palestinian’s lives. The Palestinian President, Abu Mazen, threatened that he might resort to this option if the negotiations failed to form a unity government. Yet this scenario still has many obstacles that make it unpractical and hard to reach. Hamas rejects this option and considers it a coup d’état that aims at undermining the new produced political equations and overthrow Hamas Government.  The implementation of this scenario, without national consensus, might lead to unpredicted consequences, the most and dangerous is the break out of new escalated violence.

Third: The penetration of the international imposed boycott. The third scenario is the ability of Hamas to break through the international boycott through adopting a practical and acceptable political initiative that respond, meet and emulate the Quartet conditions in recognizing Israel, renouncing violence and accept the signed peace accords between Palestinian Authority and Israel. From a realistic point of view, Hamas as a practical-    proven movement,  is more likely expected to adapt and manipulate its view to be more realistic and seeks to make a hole in the international wall of sanctions rather than to concede its status as a leading power who possesses the majority in the political governor body.  In this case, the pragmatism of Hamas does not mean to accept the Quartet pre-conditions as it is, but to find new formula that might bypass the clear and official acceptance and recognition of Israel Statehood. In his recent public speech, Khaled Mishal, the secretary of Hamas Political Bureau, declared frankly that “Israel is a real fact that cannot be avoided” which might be an example of Hamas’ readiness to deal with the imposed facts rather than to adhere to ideological slogans.      

Fourth: the fourth scenario is the persistence of the existing situation and deterioration of the whole society. The image would be rather horrible and gloomy in the context of lack of order, escalation of violence, weak judiciary system as well as collapse of economic. This bleak environment coupled with the Israeli asphyxiating procedures would produce and paint a black and choking situation embodied in a starving population living below poverty line and 90% unemployed labor force. As a matter of fact, the internal fight if persist, will have disastrous and unexpected outcomes that impact the whole society.

-A Palestinian writer based in the West Bank city of Beit Jala. (Copy Rights www.amin.org)