Israeli Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu’s fragile grip on power faces its toughest test yet, as cracks widen inside his wartime coalition.
Following a lack of process from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on a bill to ensure an exemption for Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews from serving in the military, two parties in his coalition verge on dissolving the Knesset. While this move could be averted, it signals a further erosion of leadership.
On Wednesday, the Israeli PM concluded a fruitless meeting with Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman, Yuli Edelstein, on the topic of forwarding a bill that would grant immunity to Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Yeshiva students from conscription to the army. As a result, prominent Haredi leaders have called upon their Parties to withdraw from the Israeli coalition.
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If the Haredi Parties are to withdraw, this would topple Netanyahu’s coalition majority and lead to a vote to dissolve the Knesset, plunging Tel Aviv into a political crisis and bringing about new elections as early as September.
There are currently two Haredi coalition partners. They are the Shas Party that represents the Mizrahi Haredim, holding 11 Knesset seats, and the Ashkenazi Haredi bloc United Torah Judaism (UTJ), which holds 7 seats.
While influential Rabbi Dov Landau, spiritual leader of the Lithuanian Haredim, has issued a call for withdrawing from the government, he is still allowing a window of a few weeks for things to be worked out. This means that so far, UTJ is considering but is not guaranteed to withdraw, a move that would almost definitely lead to Shas also leaving the coalition. Shas is, however, according to Israeli media reports, preparing to depart.
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Benjamin Netanyahu is renowned as a political survivor, and he is not about to go down without a fight, especially since his fall from power would likely be followed by criminal charges related to his ongoing corruption trial. Therefore, it is way too early to simply count him out.
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Another possibility here is that the Haredi Parties get spooked by the Israeli opposition’s push to weaponize their decisions, especially fearing any accusations that they are collaborating with former Israeli PM Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party.
Even in the event that a vote is held to dissolve the Knesset, this in of itself could prove risky for the opposition and end up working in Netanyahu’s favour if he manages to turn things around with his Ultra-Orthodox allies. This is because a bill to dissolve the Knesset can only be brought for a vote once, then a six-month period will have to take place before another vote can be held on it.
As Israeli media often hype up these kinds of political events, a lot of speculation, polls, and leaks have begun emerging over the past 24 hours, making the issue a new national crisis.
According to a Channel 12 Poll, if elections were held today, the Israeli PM’s coalition would only win around 48 seats, while a coalition led by former PM Naftali Bennet would win 62-72. In order to form a government, a coalition must be brought together that surpasses the 60-seat mark in a 120-seat Knesset.
Israel’s Channel 13 also leaked that during a conversation between Netanyahu and a senior Rabbi, he had claimed to have dismissed the former Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in order to pass a draft exemption bill for the Haredim.
If true, this is an admission that the Israeli Premier has torn down his own leadership in order to keep himself in power, which aligns precisely with the theory that he is forming a quasi-dictatorship by surrounding himself with his political allies and yes men. This would add to the controversy surrounding the firing of Ronen Bar as Shin Bet chief, who Netanyahu seeks to replace with another ally.
Other major figures who have been critical of the Israeli PM have also been pushed out of positions of power, including even the Israeli army spokesperson, Daniel Hagari. Now, it appears as if the Israeli Premier is adamant on getting rid of the Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, reportedly without consulting the search committee that appointed her.
From the beginning of Netanyahu’s latest coalition reign, in late 2022, a particular focus has been placed upon amending Israeli law, overhauling the judiciary, and permitting religious groups to forward an agenda to Judaize the State. This has been widely criticized and protested by the Israeli opposition and the secular-leaning side of Israel’s society.
Until now, even when it appears that Benjamin Netanyahu is cornered, he manages to crush his opposition and turn the situation around in his favour. Yet, the issue he will continue to have is how far he divides the Israeli society in the process, while also picking fights with powerful individuals in his intelligence agencies and army.
All of this plays out against the backdrop of Netanyahu’s stated plot to ensure “total victory” in Israel’s ongoing 7-front war. However, even with its new military operation, dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots”, in the Gaza Strip, Israel is failing to make any significant progress towards its stated war goals. All over-inflated hype about the next move that they have in store, which always ends up being civilian massacres with no military victories to show.
On the odd chance that this is indeed the end for the Israeli PM and he fails to wiggle his way out of this crisis, it is likely that this increases the likelihood of a more drastic measure to be taken in the regional war, vis-à-vis Iran.
If he survives, then this will lead to a further weakening of the Israeli regime’s structure and cause issues amongst its population, who are in the majority in supporting the idea of forcing the Haredim to join the army for mandatory service.
(The Palestine Chronicle)
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.
They’re all scumbags. My whole life i always heard; the Jews are nasty, shady, scummy people. You can’t trust them. I said, nah!! no way.
now i see it. It’s mainly the Zionists, but the regular good Jews don’t do anything to stop them, so who’s to blame?
Here’s an idea…stop playing perpetual victim and stop them! the world won’t remember that it was the ZioNazis doing this, they’ll blame it on the Jews. Do you care?