By Palestine Chronicle Staff  

A senior international humanitarian law expert says demographic indicators suggest the number of people killed in Gaza could be far higher than confirmed figures, pointing to a dramatic decline in the enclave’s population since October 2023.

Key Takeaways

• Geneva Academy says Gaza population decline could indicate more than 200,000 deaths
• Maslen says the official death toll counts only recovered bodies
• Report warns humanitarian crisis continues despite ceasefire conditions
• The Academy estimates reconstruction will take years and billions of dollars
• Findings echo earlier population-based mortality estimates discussed in The Lancet

‘Under the Rubble’

Speaking to Anadolu News Agency, Stuart Casey-Maslen, head of the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, said Gaza’s population has fallen by more than 10 percent since October 2023.

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If confirmed, he said, that demographic change would imply a death toll far beyond widely cited figures.

“We’re talking over 200,000 if those figures are correct,” Maslen told Anadolu.

He stressed that the commonly referenced total of roughly 70,000 deaths reflects only bodies recovered so far. “We do not believe that that is the final total. There will be more bodies under the rubble.”

‘Dramatic’ Situation

Maslen described the situation in Gaza as “dramatic,” warning that the reduction of large-scale bombardment after the ceasefire has not ended civilian suffering.

“We’re obviously pleased that we do not have the heavy hostilities we saw last year before the ceasefire. But that does not mean the suffering for the people of Gaza has ended.”

He pointed in particular to injured civilians unable to evacuate for treatment.

According to Maslen, urgent needs include food, water, shelter, winter protection and medical care, adding that “the situation remains intolerable.”

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Reconstruction Expected to Take Years

The Geneva Academy’s War Watch report — covering Gaza and 23 armed conflicts between July 2024 and December 2025 — describes destruction across the enclave as extraordinary.

Maslen said rebuilding will be long and costly. “We have years of rebuilding if the people of Gaza are to return to anything like a sense of normality.”

He added that billions of dollars will be required to restore conditions comparable to those before October 2023.

Earlier Demographic Research

Maslen’s assessment aligns with earlier population-based mortality research published in 2025. 

According to the analysis discussed in The Lancet, demographic modeling comparing expected and observed population levels suggested that roughly 300,000–377,000 Palestinians may have been killed or remain missing when indirect deaths and unrecovered victims are included.

The Geneva Academy’s remarks, therefore, reinforce a growing academic view that the commonly cited figure of about 70,000 confirmed deaths may represent only a fraction of the actual loss of life in Gaza.

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Legal Accountability Questions

Maslen also addressed legal classification, saying genocide under international law depends on proving intent to destroy a protected group in whole or in part.

“I don’t think the genocide in Gaza started on Oct. 7, 2023,” he said, noting UN investigators had concluded genocidal acts occurred without assigning a single start date.

He added that killings, injuries, and deprivation of food had been documented as underlying acts.

The report further noted the lack of progress on International Criminal Court arrest warrants, pointing out that sanctions were imposed on judges involved in issuing them. Maslen said justice must ultimately address unlawful killings, adding the people of Gaza would seek the same.

(Anadolu, PC)